Mitigation in the Context of the Paris Agreement

This synthesis provides an overview of the recent scientific literature related to the Paris Agreement global mitigation goals.

Key characteristics of scenarios in line with limiting warming to below 1.5°C in 2100 with 50% probability have been identified in the post-AR5 literature: (1) no scenarios are available which peak global greenhouse gas emissions later than 2020 and comprehensive emission reductions thus need to occur over the 2015-2025 time period; (2) global net zero CO2 emissions are achieved around mid-century, 10 to 20 years earlier than in scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C with a 66% probability, and CO2 reductions beyond global net zero are achieved afterwards to peak and decline global temperatures. This requires CO2 to be removed actively from the atmosphere; (3) additional emission reductions coming mainly from CO2 compared to 2°C scenarios with 66% probability, while also non-CO2 greenhouse gas need to be reduced but not beyond what is already assumed for 2°C. Furthermore, (4) energy supply is rapidly and profoundly decarbonized over the next two decades, and (5) energy efficiency is key resulting in lower demand in hard-to-decarbonize sectors, like industry, buildings, and transportation.


Type:
Rapport
Nummer:
M-624
Språk:
EN

Publisert:
03.11.2016 00:00:00
Opphav:
Miljødirektoratet
Omfang:
23 s.

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Dokumentformat: .pdf

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